My writing

Reflections on the Stock Market and China

I haven’t followed the stock market much, recently, but after my mother died, part of the inheritance she left us was in the form of stocks. So, I’ve been checking things out as we’ve been dealing with those stocks and consolidating our retirement savings with our broker. (I like my broker a lot.) There are a lot of factors to consider when buying stocks that relate to your temperament and our broker has gone through a lot of discussions with us so that he can help find the right investments for us. One of the issues I’m concerned about, and it isn’t always easy relaying this concern to a stockbroker, is socially responsible investing. I’m not going to get into the details of that, but the inked articles can give you more understanding of that topic. There are some really strong mutual funds, Morningstar 5-star funds even, that follow socially responsible patterns of investing, so you won’t lose a whole lot doing that.

The biggest cloud hanging over the market right now is the issue of a US and China trade agreement. The most well-known barometer of the stock market is the Dow Jones average. The Dow will swing a couple hundred points up or down each day depending on what the rumors are about the trade talks. The other day was a particularly bad day for the market because a number of Chinese companies were blacklisted. While I don’t understand the whole story, these companies were blacklisted because they came from, perhaps even participated in, oppressing the Muslim minority in those provinces in the west.

Given China’s history on human rights, the fact that they are oppressing a religious minority shouldn’t surprise anyone. They continue to persecute Christians and members of the Falung Gong as well as Muslims. They put down a movement toward freedom at Tianammen Square a number of years ago and are cracking down on a similar movement in Hong Kong. What kind of reach do they have in their anti-freedom agenda, look no further than the NBA which has removed fans from the stands for supporting a free Hong Kong. Of course, this came after after Chinahad cut ties with the NBA because a member of one team’s executive staff tweeted that he stood with the Hong Kong protestors in seeking freedom. China has a lot of economic strength and they’re willing to flex their muscles to get their way and, in the past, US businessmen bowed to the Chinese because of the desire for trade.

If the above isn’t bad enough, let’s not forget that they use slave labor and infringe on copyrights and trademarks, and other issues of intellectual property as naturally as breathing. Because of their cheap/slave labor they can flood the market with cheap goods. They can even take a loss on some of those sales because they’re able to manipulate currency and end up earning money.

China has a weak spot in their economy, though, that wasn’t visible until the recent trade war. They have two economies: one for export and one for internal issues. The economy for the people of China is stagnant because no one has any money to buy things. What keeps China afloat is their export market. As their ability to export drops, less trade means less money to prop up the failed communist regime. That’s why I believe we’re seeing the Chinese trade negotiators responding so vehemently to any perceived slight. They know they can affect the various stock markets and hope that their threats will bring the US and other nations into their line before they have to fall to their knees and accept the US proposals.

Which brings us back to the beginning: the stock market. I can guarantee you that the market will take on a long, steady, downward drift if we don’t make peace with China in this trade war. But I think it’s worth it so we avoid a tacit approval of China’s evil practices. True, my stocks will go down, but it’s a price we need to be willing to pay to force China to trade fairly and treat their citizens appropriately. This is a trade war we can’t afford to lose.

EDIT: Case in point – I woke up to read this article. NBA takes mic away from reporter for asking about China